„Manchen Völkern genügt eine Katastrophe, sie zur Besinnung zu bringen. Deutschen, so scheint es, bedarf es des Untergangs.” --Arthur Moeller van den Bruck
„Wenn man so darüber nachdenkt ist es eigentlich erschreckend, wie wenig Politiker aufgeknüpft werden.” --G. K. Chesterton
„Manchmal frage ich mich, ob die Welt von klugen Menschen regiert wird, die uns zum Narren halten, oder von Schwachköpfen, die es ernst meinen.” --Mark Twain
Wenn ich das richtig verstehe, müssen jetzt zu viel bezahlte Steuern in den USA zurückbezahlt werden, gleichzeitig ist das aktuelle Steueraufkommen massiv gefallen (über 30 % gegenüber Vorjahr). Der Schuldendeckel dürfte früher als bisher erwartet erreicht werden.
Zitat With Wall Street's attention suddenly transfixed on the upcoming debt ceiling fiasco following our report "Why This Week's Tax Data Could Lead To A Much Earlier Debt Ceiling Crisis" (as well as subsequent articles here and here) in which we warned that sharply weaker tax receipts (a non-trivial puzzle considering the BLS claims the US generated 4 million jobs since last year yet tax receipts are 30% lower) in 2023 could bring forward the infamous X-date from the previous consensus of as far as October to as soon as June, on Friday we said that the latest Daily Treasury Statement (or DTS) which updates the Treasury's daily cash balances, receipts and outlays, would be a doozy and far more important and informative than the Fed's Friday H.8 statement (which tracks bank deposit and loan data).
JPMorgan:
Zitat Brace for a Congressional showdown over the debt ceiling beginning as early as May with a non-trivial risk of a technical default on US Treasuries.
Folgen:
Zitat While a technical default by the US is very unlikely because in the event that the US actually does default, Joe Biden would be compelled to use executive authority to lift the ceiling 3-4 days after default, a course of action which would likely be challenged in the Supreme Court, the market is not taking any chances and as we first showed last week and have been showing ever since, the risk of a US sovereign default has soared to the highest on record. Why? Because as even Barack Obama said “Don’t underestimate Joe’s ability to fuck things up.” In the coming days, Joe will be given the chance to prove Obama's skepticism right, and if the former president is right, the US could be in technical default as soon as two months from today.
Es wird mit Sicherheit keinen Default geben, aber es könnte den Druck auf die Notenbank erhöhen, das Quantiative Tightening zu beenden, und so den Goldpreis weiter antreiben.
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